{
  "panel_id": "CF-03",
  "slug": "war-scorecard",
  "title": "The War Scorecard",
  "standfirst": {
    "text": "Six actors, what each one says, what each one is doing, and where the fighting or the bases actually are, read side by side, with three chains of contradiction the official language is built to hide."
  },
  "data_range": {
    "end": "2026-08-11",
    "start": "2026-02-28",
    "display": "28 February to 11 August 2026"
  },
  "scorecard": {
    "title": "Actor by actor",
    "meta": "Says · does · where",
    "columns": [
      "Actor",
      "What they say",
      "What they are doing",
      "Where the fighting or bases are"
    ],
    "rows": [
      {
        "actor": "Israel",
        "status": "Active combat",
        "says": "Campaign removes threats from Iran and aligned armed groups.",
        "does": "Joint strikes on Iran; airstrikes in Lebanon; troops hold territory in the south.",
        "where": "Israel, long-range operations over Iran, and a reported strip about 10 km inside Lebanon."
      },
      {
        "actor": "Iran",
        "status": "Active combat",
        "says": "Defending Iran against US–Israeli aggression.",
        "does": "Missile and drone retaliation against Israel and US-linked sites; threats to Gulf infrastructure.",
        "where": "Iran, Israel and the Gulf, including pressure around Hormuz and regional energy routes."
      },
      {
        "actor": "United States",
        "status": "Active combat",
        "says": "Eliminate imminent threats and constrain Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities.",
        "does": "Strikes Iran; deploys air and naval forces; operates through regional bases and ships.",
        "where": "Gulf bases and naval platforms. Major facilities in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait have been targeted."
      },
      {
        "actor": "Hezbollah",
        "status": "Active / fragile truce",
        "says": "Responding to Iran’s leader being killed and to continued Israeli attacks; rejects disarmament.",
        "does": "Missiles and drones toward Israel; attacks Israeli positions inside southern Lebanon.",
        "where": "Lebanon, especially the south and the Israeli-held strip."
      },
      {
        "actor": "Houthis",
        "status": "Multiple fronts",
        "says": "Support Iran and Palestine; resist the US and Israel.",
        "does": "Missiles and drones, Red Sea attacks, and strikes on Saudi and Yemeni-government targets.",
        "where": "Sanaa and northwestern Yemen; Red Sea and Gulf of Aden routes."
      },
      {
        "actor": "Gulf host states",
        "status": "Hosts + defends",
        "says": "Call for talks, ceasefires and de-escalation.",
        "does": "Host US forces, defend airspace and energy sites, and absorb Iranian or Houthi threats.",
        "where": "US facilities in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, with wider deployments across the Gulf."
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "Iran",
    "Israel",
    "Gulf"
  ],
  "plateWidth": 1536,
  "plateHeight": 1024,
  "source_citations": [
    {
      "id": "P3-S1",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "date": "2026-02-28",
      "title": "Reporting on the opening joint strikes",
      "type": "wire service"
    },
    {
      "id": "P3-S2",
      "publisher": "Associated Press",
      "date": "2026-03-02",
      "title": "Reporting on Hezbollah fire and Israeli strikes in Lebanon",
      "type": "wire service"
    },
    {
      "id": "P3-S3",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "date": "2026-06-18",
      "title": "Reporting on the June truce",
      "type": "wire service"
    },
    {
      "id": "P3-S4",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "title": "Reporting on the retained strip inside Lebanon",
      "type": "wire service"
    },
    {
      "id": "P3-S5",
      "publisher": "ACLED",
      "date": "2026-08-09",
      "title": "Strike-event counts, including intercepted attacks",
      "type": "dataset"
    }
  ],
  "subtitle": "Declared versus actual, actor by actor.",
  "as_of_stamp": "as of August 11, 2026",
  "provenance": "Authored on the desk, ported from the 2a prototype. Carries no per-claim verification summary.",
  "stats": [
    {
      "label": "US-Israeli strike events",
      "value": "3,578",
      "emphasis": true
    },
    {
      "label": "Iranian strike events",
      "value": "2,035"
    },
    {
      "label": "Since",
      "value": "28 February 2026"
    }
  ],
  "stats_caption": "ACLED count, 9 August 2026. ACLED counts strike events, including intercepted attacks.",
  "timeline": {
    "title": "How it got here",
    "meta": "Five turns · February to August 2026",
    "turns": [
      {
        "date": "Feb 28",
        "title": "US + Israel strike Iran",
        "note": "Joint attacks begin."
      },
      {
        "date": "Mar 2",
        "title": "Hezbollah fires",
        "note": "Israel strikes Lebanon."
      },
      {
        "date": "March",
        "title": "Ground operations expand",
        "note": "Israeli forces push into the south."
      },
      {
        "date": "June",
        "title": "Fragile truce",
        "note": "Israel retains a reported ~10 km zone."
      },
      {
        "date": "August",
        "title": "Talks, then more fire",
        "note": "Negotiations continue as incidents persist."
      }
    ]
  },
  "chains_of_contradiction": [
    {
      "chain_id": "C1",
      "statements": [
        "Gulf governments call for calm while hosting forces Iran says it is targeting."
      ]
    },
    {
      "chain_id": "C2",
      "statements": [
        "A June truce exists while Israeli troops remain inside Lebanon and strikes continue."
      ]
    },
    {
      "chain_id": "C3",
      "statements": [
        "Hezbollah joined the war in support of Iran, while its disarmament is now tied to Israeli withdrawal."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-11",
      "note": "Strike-event counts updated to ACLED’s 9 August release. Scorecard re-dated."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-06",
      "note": "AP reporting added on continuing incidents through the truce."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-08-05",
      "note": "Reuters report on the reported ~10 km strip inside Lebanon folded into the Israel row."
    }
  ]
}