{
  "edition": "02",
  "slug": "syria",
  "title": "Syria: Everyone Shook Hands, Nobody Agreed",
  "standfirst": "Eighteen months after the fall of the House of Assad, the men who took Damascus sit in its ministries, their former enemies hold seats or refuse them, and the powers that fought over Syria now negotiate over it. If you find this confusing, you are reading it correctly.",
  "asOf": "2026-08-10",
  "factions": [
    {
      "id": "dms",
      "code": "DMS",
      "name": "Transitional government",
      "arena": "inside",
      "color": "#2E6B4F",
      "trajectory": "consolidating",
      "who": "The ex-HTS leadership that took Damascus in December 2024, now the state.",
      "wants": "One army, one treasury, sanctions gone, everyone else's weapons.",
      "holds": "The capital, the institutions, and, since 30 January, the northeast's administration.",
      "now": "Parliament seated 12 July 2026: 210 seats, 70 appointed by Sharaa, Sweida's three left vacant."
    },
    {
      "id": "sdf",
      "code": "SDF",
      "name": "Syrian Democratic Forces",
      "arena": "inside",
      "color": "#B98A2F",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "who": "The Kurdish-led force that ran the northeast and the ISIS prison camps for a decade.",
      "wants": "Whatever autonomy survives the 30 January agreement.",
      "holds": "Guns, local legitimacy, leverage over ISIS detainees; the administration went to Damascus.",
      "now": "Signed a deal in March 2025, lost a war in January 2026, signed a smaller deal."
    },
    {
      "id": "drz",
      "code": "DRZ",
      "name": "Sweida Druze factions",
      "arena": "inside",
      "color": "#6E5A8E",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "who": "Druze factions around Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri holding Syria's southern mountain.",
      "wants": "Local control, guarantees, and no repeat of July 2025.",
      "holds": "Sweida province, which Damascus does not.",
      "now": "Standoff: three parliament seats kept vacant, integration talks frozen."
    },
    {
      "id": "alw",
      "code": "ALW",
      "name": "Coastal insurgents",
      "arena": "inside",
      "color": "#5C6B77",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "who": "Assad-era officers and loyalist cells along the Alawite coast.",
      "wants": "Survival, revenge, relevance, roughly in that order.",
      "holds": "Grievance and geography after the March 2025 coastal killings.",
      "now": "Embers rather than a front; the transition's accountability test."
    },
    {
      "id": "iss",
      "code": "ISIS",
      "name": "ISIS remnants",
      "arena": "inside",
      "color": "#1F1F1F",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "who": "The insurgency that never fully left the desert.",
      "wants": "Chaos in the northeast handover; breakouts from the camps.",
      "holds": "Cells in the Badia and the east.",
      "now": "Attacks continue in the former SDF areas; everyone's enemy, no one's priority."
    },
    {
      "id": "isr",
      "code": "ISR",
      "name": "Israel",
      "arena": "outside",
      "color": "#2D5C8F",
      "trajectory": "flipped",
      "who": "Neighbor, occupier of the post-December 2024 buffer zone, frequent air force over Syria.",
      "wants": "A demilitarized south, Iran locked out, terms it writes itself.",
      "holds": "The buffer zone past the Golan, Mount Hermon's summit, air superiority.",
      "now": "From striking Damascus in July 2025 to security-agreement talks by July 2026."
    },
    {
      "id": "tur",
      "code": "TUR",
      "name": "Turkey",
      "arena": "outside",
      "color": "#B3402E",
      "trajectory": "consolidating",
      "who": "Damascus's chief patron and the north's resident power since 2016.",
      "wants": "Kurdish autonomy dead, refugees home, the reconstruction contracts signed.",
      "holds": "Border zones, leverage over the new army, the president's ear.",
      "now": "Won the war by proxy; now managing the peace against Israel's veto."
    },
    {
      "id": "usa",
      "code": "USA",
      "name": "United States",
      "arena": "outside",
      "color": "#3E5C76",
      "trajectory": "flipped",
      "who": "A decade of anti-ISIS mission, now chief broker of the transition.",
      "wants": "ISIS contained, Iran out, a success story that costs nothing.",
      "holds": "Sanctions leverage, mostly spent; a shrinking footprint; the pen on ceasefires.",
      "now": "Armed the SDF for ten years, then mediated their absorption on 30 January."
    },
    {
      "id": "rus",
      "code": "RUS",
      "name": "Russia",
      "arena": "outside",
      "color": "#7A3B4F",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "who": "Assad's former air force, currently a tenant renegotiating the lease.",
      "wants": "To keep Tartus and Hmeimim; everything else is negotiable.",
      "holds": "Two bases, Assad himself (in Moscow), institutional memory.",
      "now": "From kingmaker to landlord-in-talks in eighteen months."
    },
    {
      "id": "irn",
      "code": "IRN",
      "name": "Iran and Hezbollah",
      "arena": "outside",
      "color": "#556B2F",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "who": "The axis that lost its land bridge on 8 December 2024.",
      "wants": "Back in; any corridor to Lebanon will do.",
      "holds": "Networks rather than territory.",
      "now": "Damascus dismantled an alleged cell in May and backs disarming Hezbollah next door."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "UN Security Council Report",
      "title": "Monthly Forecast: Syria",
      "date": "2026-08",
      "url": "VERIFY"
    },
    {
      "name": "Council on Foreign Relations",
      "title": "Global Conflict Tracker: Conflict in Syria",
      "date": "2026-08",
      "url": "VERIFY"
    },
    {
      "name": "UK House of Commons Library",
      "title": "Syria One Year After Assad",
      "date": "2026-07",
      "url": "VERIFY"
    },
    {
      "name": "Al Jazeera and Reuters",
      "title": "Wire reporting, 2024 to 2026",
      "date": "VERIFY",
      "url": "VERIFY"
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Page created. Reflects the 30 January northeast agreement, the May cabinet reshuffle, and July's parliament seating."
    }
  ],
  "hook": "Ten actors, forty-five relationships, one grid.",
  "dataRange": {
    "from": "2024-12-08",
    "to": "2026-08-10"
  },
  "reviewDueDays": 45,
  "blocks": [
    {
      "type": "faction-dossier"
    },
    {
      "type": "relationship-matrix"
    },
    {
      "type": "chains"
    },
    {
      "type": "faq"
    }
  ],
  "relationships": [
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "sdf",
      "state": "complicated",
      "flipped": true,
      "note": "At war on 13 January, one administration by the 30th. Terms still being digested."
    },
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "drz",
      "state": "tense",
      "note": "No control, no seats filled, no forgiveness yet for July 2025."
    },
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "alw",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "The coast remembers March 2025; Damascus calls it counterinsurgency."
    },
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "iss",
      "state": "war",
      "note": "The one fight everyone endorses."
    },
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "isr",
      "state": "tense",
      "flipped": true,
      "note": "Bombed by it in 2025, negotiating security terms with it by July 2026."
    },
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "tur",
      "state": "allied",
      "note": "Patron and client, increasingly employer and contractor."
    },
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "usa",
      "state": "cooperative",
      "flipped": true,
      "note": "From terror list to mediated maps and sanctions relief."
    },
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "rus",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "Hosting talks with the state that shelters Assad, because the bases pay."
    },
    {
      "a": "dms",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "hostile",
      "flipped": true,
      "note": "Expelled the axis, then dismantled its alleged cells in May."
    },
    {
      "a": "sdf",
      "b": "drz",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "Two minorities comparing the fine print of their autonomy offers."
    },
    {
      "a": "sdf",
      "b": "alw",
      "state": "none",
      "note": "Different griefs, no common front."
    },
    {
      "a": "sdf",
      "b": "iss",
      "state": "war",
      "note": "Jailer and inmate, still."
    },
    {
      "a": "sdf",
      "b": "isr",
      "state": "none",
      "note": "Occasional rhetorical sympathy, nothing bankable."
    },
    {
      "a": "sdf",
      "b": "tur",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "Ankara's red line for a decade; the January war suited it fine."
    },
    {
      "a": "sdf",
      "b": "usa",
      "state": "complicated",
      "flipped": true,
      "note": "Armed by Washington for ten years, then handed to Damascus by Washington."
    },
    {
      "a": "sdf",
      "b": "rus",
      "state": "none",
      "note": "Old channels, dead lines."
    },
    {
      "a": "sdf",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "none",
      "note": "No basis left on either side."
    },
    {
      "a": "drz",
      "b": "alw",
      "state": "none",
      "note": "Parallel fears, separate mountains."
    },
    {
      "a": "drz",
      "b": "iss",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "Old enemies since the 2018 massacres."
    },
    {
      "a": "drz",
      "b": "isr",
      "state": "cooperative",
      "note": "Struck Damascus in their name in 2025; the embrace is useful and uncomfortable."
    },
    {
      "a": "drz",
      "b": "tur",
      "state": "tense",
      "note": "Ankara reads autonomy as contagion."
    },
    {
      "a": "drz",
      "b": "usa",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "Washington urges integration; Sweida read January's terms first."
    },
    {
      "a": "drz",
      "b": "rus",
      "state": "none",
      "note": "Nothing on the table."
    },
    {
      "a": "drz",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "No appetite for the axis in the mountain."
    },
    {
      "a": "alw",
      "b": "iss",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "Sectarian enemies even in defeat."
    },
    {
      "a": "alw",
      "b": "isr",
      "state": "none",
      "note": "No channel, no use for one."
    },
    {
      "a": "alw",
      "b": "tur",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "Ankara's client state is their problem."
    },
    {
      "a": "alw",
      "b": "usa",
      "state": "none",
      "note": "Off each other's lists."
    },
    {
      "a": "alw",
      "b": "rus",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "The old patron kept the receipts, not the promises."
    },
    {
      "a": "alw",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "Damascus alleges the link; both deny the marriage."
    },
    {
      "a": "iss",
      "b": "isr",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "Enemies on paper, rarely in contact."
    },
    {
      "a": "iss",
      "b": "tur",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "A border problem Ankara outsources."
    },
    {
      "a": "iss",
      "b": "usa",
      "state": "war",
      "note": "The mission that outlived three administrations."
    },
    {
      "a": "iss",
      "b": "rus",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "Leftover enmity from another war."
    },
    {
      "a": "iss",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "hostile",
      "note": "Sectarian enemies of long standing."
    },
    {
      "a": "isr",
      "b": "tur",
      "state": "tense",
      "note": "Two patrons, one Syria, zero trust."
    },
    {
      "a": "isr",
      "b": "usa",
      "state": "allied",
      "note": "Aligned on Iran, split on how much Syria to bet on."
    },
    {
      "a": "isr",
      "b": "rus",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "Deconfliction survives everything."
    },
    {
      "a": "isr",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "war",
      "note": "Open war since February; Syrian skies are one of its corridors."
    },
    {
      "a": "tur",
      "b": "usa",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "NATO allies who armed opposite sides and both claim vindication."
    },
    {
      "a": "tur",
      "b": "rus",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "Astana partners turned competing landlords."
    },
    {
      "a": "tur",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "tense",
      "note": "Ankara won the Syria round; Tehran has not conceded the match."
    },
    {
      "a": "usa",
      "b": "rus",
      "state": "tense",
      "note": "Adversaries everywhere, unusually quiet here."
    },
    {
      "a": "usa",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "war",
      "note": "At war since 28 February; Syria is the one theater both avoid."
    },
    {
      "a": "rus",
      "b": "irn",
      "state": "complicated",
      "note": "Co-patrons of a fallen client, comparing losses."
    }
  ],
  "chains": [
    [
      "Washington armed the SDF against ISIS",
      "its NATO ally Turkey fought the SDF",
      "Damascus attacked the SDF in January",
      "Washington mediated the deal placing the SDF's region under Damascus",
      "everyone announced a win."
    ],
    [
      "A commander once carried a ten million dollar US bounty",
      "he became the president who seated a parliament",
      "he hosted the UN Secretary-General in July",
      "and says a security agreement with Israel is being worked on."
    ],
    [
      "Israel struck Syria's Defense Ministry in July 2025",
      "it kept the buffer zone it took in 2024",
      "by July 2026 the two governments were drafting security terms",
      "while Israeli aircraft still transit toward Iran."
    ]
  ],
  "faq": [
    {
      "q": "Who runs Syria now?",
      "a": "Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim president since January 2025. A 210-seat transitional parliament was seated on 12 July 2026; he appointed 70 of its members directly."
    },
    {
      "q": "Does Damascus control the whole country?",
      "a": "No. Sweida remains outside its control and the province's three parliament seats sit vacant. The northeast came under Damascus administration on 30 January 2026 through a US-mediated agreement, two weeks after a government offensive took most of the region."
    },
    {
      "q": "Are Syria and Israel at war?",
      "a": "Formally unresolved. Israel holds a buffer zone taken in December 2024 and struck Damascus as recently as 2025, yet by July 2026 Sharaa said the two governments are working toward a security agreement."
    }
  ],
  "methodNote": "Relationship verdicts are editorial classifications of sourced events, not quotations.",
  "tags": [
    "Syria",
    "Turkey",
    "SDF"
  ],
  "plateWidth": 1448,
  "plateHeight": 1086
}