{
  "panel_id": "CF-P4",
  "slug": "gaza",
  "title": "Gaza: An Org Chart of Nobody",
  "standfirst": {
    "text": "The transition has a UN mandate, a Board of Peace, a high representative, a Palestinian technocrat committee and an authorized security force. The committee has no confirmed entry into Gaza. Hamas dissolved its oversight body but kept ministries and policing. Israel controls more than 60 percent. The July disarmament roadmap remains contested and unimplemented."
  },
  "data_range": {
    "end": "2026-08-11",
    "start": "2025-10-10",
    "display": "10 October 2025 to 11 August 2026",
    "note": "The plate declares an as-of date only. The range start is inferred from its first key date, the 10 October 2025 ceasefire."
  },
  "actor_cards": [
    {
      "actor_id": "UNSCR2803",
      "chip_label": "UN Security Council Resolution 2803",
      "chip_color": "blue-grey",
      "WHO": "The legal framework for the transition.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Endorses the Comprehensive Plan. Welcomes the Board of Peace and authorizes an International Stabilization Force.",
      "NOW": "Adopted 17 November 2025.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "BOP",
      "chip_label": "Board of Peace",
      "chip_color": "violet",
      "WHO": "Transitional administration with international legal personality, chaired by the US president.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Sets the framework and coordinates redevelopment funding.",
      "NOW": "Exists outside Gaza.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "HIGHREP",
      "chip_label": "High Representative for Gaza",
      "chip_color": "sage",
      "WHO": "Nickolay Mladenov.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Leads implementation talks and regional diplomacy.",
      "NOW": "Active, outside Gaza. Does not run Gaza day to day.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "NCAG",
      "chip_label": "National Committee for Gaza (NCAG)",
      "chip_color": "ochre",
      "WHO": "15 Palestinian technocrats.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Intended to run ministries, municipalities and police.",
      "NOW": "In Cairo. No qualifying source confirms entry into Gaza as of today.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S3"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "ISF",
      "chip_label": "International Stabilization Force",
      "chip_color": "violet",
      "WHO": "Authorized by Resolution 2803.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Intended to monitor the ceasefire and support security with Palestinian police.",
      "NOW": "Authorized, not fully deployed. Full operational deployment is not confirmed.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "SERVICES",
      "chip_label": "Gaza services and police",
      "chip_color": "blue-grey",
      "WHO": "The day-to-day public services the NCAG is meant to supervise.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Existing ministries and staff remained in Gaza.",
      "NOW": "Handover not complete. The planned transfer of authority is not complete.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S3",
        "P4-S4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "HAMAS_CIVIL",
      "chip_label": "Hamas civil oversight body",
      "chip_color": "rust",
      "WHO": "The civil oversight body Hamas dissolved on 6 July 2026.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Ministries and appointed staff stayed in place.",
      "NOW": "Dissolved, functions remain. Hamas retained security and policing in areas it controlled.",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "ISR_CONTROL",
      "chip_label": "Israeli military control",
      "chip_color": "charcoal",
      "WHO": "Israeli forces on the ground.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "AP, 2 August: Israeli forces control more than 60 percent of Gaza.",
      "NOW": "On the ground. Reuters, 9 August: Israel rejects withdrawal before Hamas fully disarms.",
      "trajectory": "consolidating",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S6"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "Gaza",
    "Governance",
    "Transition"
  ],
  "plateWidth": 1536,
  "plateHeight": 1024,
  "source_citations": [
    {
      "id": "P4-S1",
      "publisher": "UN OCHA",
      "date": "2025-12-11",
      "title": "Ceasefire effective 10 October at noon",
      "type": "official international institution",
      "supports": [
        "Ceasefire date and time"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P4-S2",
      "publisher": "UN Security Council",
      "date": "2025-11-17",
      "title": "Resolution 2803",
      "type": "official international institution",
      "supports": [
        "Board of Peace",
        "Technocrat committee",
        "International Stabilization Force"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P4-S3",
      "publisher": "Associated Press",
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "title": "NCAG based in Cairo; handover incomplete",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "NCAG location",
        "Incomplete handover"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P4-S4",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "date": "2026-07-06",
      "title": "Hamas dissolves civil oversight body; functions remain",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "Dissolution date",
        "Ministries and staff remain",
        "Retained security and policing"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P4-S5",
      "publisher": "Reuters and Associated Press",
      "date": "2026-08-03",
      "title": "Disarmament roadmap and conditions, 30 July to 3 August 2026",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "Roadmap steps",
        "Contested implementation",
        "PIJ report marked VERIFY"
      ],
      "date_range": "30 July to 3 August 2026"
    },
    {
      "id": "P4-S6",
      "publisher": "Associated Press and Reuters",
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "title": "Control above 60 percent; sequence rejected; plan operative, 2 to 10 August 2026",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "Israeli control share",
        "Rejection of the sequence",
        "Plan remains operative"
      ],
      "date_range": "2 to 10 August 2026"
    }
  ],
  "subtitle": "Everything exists. Almost nothing operates inside Gaza.",
  "as_of_stamp": "as of August 11, 2026",
  "provenance": "Transcribed from the commissioned plate, which carries its own source row. Dates were verified against the plate on 11 August 2026: all seven key dates, both card dates, the roadmap date and all six source dates match. Two source entries cover ranges on the plate and carry the range end as their machine date. The data-range start is inferred from the first key date, since the plate declares an as-of date only.",
  "status_legend": [
    {
      "status": "documented",
      "display_label": "DOCUMENTED"
    },
    {
      "status": "conditional",
      "display_label": "NOT COMPLETE"
    },
    {
      "status": "blocked",
      "display_label": "CONTESTED"
    },
    {
      "status": "verify",
      "display_label": "VERIFY"
    }
  ],
  "dependency_diagram": {
    "headline": "Disarmament roadmap, announced 31 July 2026",
    "deck": "AP verified the agreement text. It links police weapons, later heavy-weapon decommissioning, ISF deployment and phased Israeli withdrawal. Israel later rejected the sequencing. Hamas says implementation depends on Israel first meeting its commitments.",
    "nodes": [
      {
        "node_id": "G1",
        "sequence": 1,
        "title": "NCAG enters Gaza",
        "status": "blocked",
        "display_label": "NO CONFIRMED ENTRY",
        "body": "No confirmed entry.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P4-S5"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "G2",
        "sequence": 2,
        "title": "Police weapons move to NCAG",
        "status": "conditional",
        "display_label": "CONTINGENT ON STEP 1",
        "body": "Contingent on Step 1.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P4-S5"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "G3",
        "sequence": 3,
        "title": "ISF deploys",
        "status": "conditional",
        "display_label": "FULL DEPLOYMENT NOT CONFIRMED",
        "body": "Full deployment not confirmed.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P4-S5"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "G4",
        "sequence": 4,
        "title": "Heavy weapons stored or decommissioned",
        "status": "conditional",
        "display_label": "TUNNELS AND PRODUCTION SITES DISMANTLED",
        "body": "Tunnels and production sites dismantled.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P4-S5"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "G5",
        "sequence": 5,
        "title": "Israel withdraws in phases",
        "status": "blocked",
        "display_label": "SEQUENCE REJECTED BY ISRAEL",
        "body": "Sequence rejected by Israel.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P4-S6"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "step_dependencies": [
      {
        "from": "G1",
        "to": "G2",
        "relationship": "required_before",
        "label": "Police weapons cannot transfer to a committee that has not entered."
      },
      {
        "from": "G2",
        "to": "G3",
        "relationship": "required_before",
        "label": "Deployment follows the weapons transfer."
      },
      {
        "from": "G3",
        "to": "G4",
        "relationship": "required_before",
        "label": "Heavy-weapon decommissioning follows deployment."
      },
      {
        "from": "G4",
        "to": "G5",
        "relationship": "unlocks",
        "label": "Phased withdrawal follows decommissioning."
      }
    ]
  },
  "unresolved_labels": [
    {
      "label": "NCAG entry into Gaza",
      "value": "NOT AGREED",
      "detail": "No qualifying source confirms entry as of the as-of date.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S3"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "ISF full deployment",
      "value": "NOT AGREED",
      "detail": "Authorized by Resolution 2803; full operational deployment is not confirmed.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "Al-Quds Brigades / PIJ consent",
      "value": "VERIFY",
      "detail": "Consent was reported on 2 August by Saudi media. No qualifying independent wire confirmation was located.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S5"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "Disarmament roadmap",
      "value": "NOT AGREED",
      "detail": "Contested and not implemented. Israel rejected the sequencing.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S5",
        "P4-S6"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "timeline": {
    "title": "Key dates",
    "meta": "Seven turns · October 2025 to August 2026",
    "turns": [
      {
        "date": "10 Oct 2025",
        "title": "Ceasefire takes effect",
        "note": "Effective at noon."
      },
      {
        "date": "17 Nov 2025",
        "title": "Resolution 2803 adopted",
        "note": "Adopted."
      },
      {
        "date": "15 Jan 2026",
        "title": "NCAG first meets",
        "note": "In Cairo."
      },
      {
        "date": "6 Jul 2026",
        "title": "Hamas dissolves its civil oversight body",
        "note": "Ministries and policing functions remain."
      },
      {
        "date": "31 Jul 2026",
        "title": "Disarmament roadmap announced",
        "note": "Contested and unimplemented."
      },
      {
        "date": "2 Aug 2026",
        "title": "Israel raises serious concerns",
        "note": "PIJ report remains VERIFY."
      },
      {
        "date": "9 to 10 Aug 2026",
        "title": "Israel rejects the sequence",
        "note": "Board says the plan remains operative."
      }
    ]
  },
  "chains_of_contradiction": [
    {
      "chain_id": "C1",
      "title": "An administration that exists everywhere except Gaza",
      "statements": [
        "A UN mandate, a Board of Peace, a high representative and a technocrat committee all exist.",
        "The committee sits in Cairo.",
        "No qualifying source confirms its entry into Gaza.",
        "The ministries actually running Gaza are the ones that were already there."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S2",
        "P4-S3",
        "P4-S4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "chain_id": "C2",
      "title": "Dissolved, but still operating",
      "statements": [
        "Hamas dissolved its civil oversight body on 6 July 2026.",
        "Its ministries and appointed staff stayed in place.",
        "It retained security and policing in areas it controlled.",
        "The body is gone; the functions are not."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S4"
      ]
    },
    {
      "chain_id": "C3",
      "title": "A roadmap whose first and last steps are both blocked",
      "statements": [
        "Step one requires the NCAG to enter Gaza, which has not been confirmed.",
        "Every later step is contingent on step one.",
        "The final step, phased Israeli withdrawal, was rejected by Israel.",
        "AP verified the text of an agreement that neither end has begun."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P4-S5",
        "P4-S6"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "relationship_matrix": {
    "included": false,
    "reason": "The approved format for this panel is an org chart with a roadmap. Relationships are expressed as institutional structure and gated steps."
  },
  "changelog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-11",
      "note": "File created from the commissioned plate."
    }
  ]
}