{
  "panel_id": "CF-P5",
  "slug": "axis-before-after",
  "title": "The Axis, Before and After",
  "standfirst": {
    "text": "In 2023 one network ran outward from a central sponsor: a state ally and land bridge in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran-aligned factions in Iraq. In 2026 the same names remain, but the Syria route is severed, leaderships have been replaced, and the network is under pressure rather than radiating from a centre."
  },
  "data_range": {
    "end": "2026-08-11",
    "start": "2023-01-01",
    "display": "2023 to 11 August 2026"
  },
  "actor_cards": [
    {
      "actor_id": "IRAN",
      "chip_label": "Iran",
      "chip_color": "rust",
      "WHO": "The central sponsor of the network in 2023.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Relationships with each node, formerly radiating outward.",
      "NOW": "Network under pressure.",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "SYRIA",
      "chip_label": "Assad Syria",
      "chip_color": "sage",
      "WHO": "State ally and land bridge in 2023.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Nothing. The regime is gone since December 2024.",
      "NOW": "Gone since December 2024. The Syria supply route was lost after Assad's fall.",
      "trajectory": "flipped",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "HEZB",
      "chip_label": "Hezbollah",
      "chip_color": "sage",
      "WHO": "The Lebanese node.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Arms, despite losses.",
      "NOW": "Degraded, still armed. Lost senior leadership and capacity, but remains armed.",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "HAMAS",
      "chip_label": "Hamas",
      "chip_color": "ochre",
      "WHO": "The Gaza node.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "VERIFY",
      "NOW": "Leadership replaced. Khalil al-Hayya became overall leader in July 2026.",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "HOUTHIS",
      "chip_label": "Houthis",
      "chip_color": "violet",
      "WHO": "The Yemen node.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Missile and drone capability.",
      "NOW": "Still firing. The freest-firing node.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S3"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "IRAQI",
      "chip_label": "Iraqi groups",
      "chip_color": "slate",
      "WHO": "Iran-aligned factions in Iraq.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "VERIFY",
      "NOW": "Active, constrained.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S3"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "Iran",
    "Levant",
    "Networks"
  ],
  "plateWidth": 1448,
  "plateHeight": 1086,
  "source_citations": [
    {
      "id": "P5-S1",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "date": "2024-12-14",
      "title": "Hezbollah says Syria supply route was lost after Assad's fall",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "Syria route severed",
        "Assad regime gone since December 2024",
        "Hezbollah degraded but armed"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P5-S2",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "date": "2026-07-20",
      "title": "Hamas names Khalil al-Hayya overall leader",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "Hamas leadership replaced",
        "Khalil al-Hayya overall leader, July 2026"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P5-S3",
      "publisher": "Associated Press and Reuters",
      "date": "2026-08-01",
      "title": "Renewed Houthi missile and drone attacks, August 2026",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "Houthis still firing",
        "Iraqi groups active but constrained"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "subtitle": "One network in 2023. One altered network in 2026.",
  "as_of_stamp": "as of August 11, 2026",
  "provenance": "Transcribed from the commissioned plate, which carries its own source row.",
  "before_after": {
    "title": "One network, two states",
    "before": {
      "label": "2023",
      "centre": "Iran, central sponsor",
      "nodes": [
        {
          "name": "Assad Syria",
          "note": "state ally / land bridge"
        },
        {
          "name": "Hezbollah",
          "note": "Lebanon"
        },
        {
          "name": "Hamas",
          "note": "Gaza"
        },
        {
          "name": "Houthis",
          "note": "Yemen"
        },
        {
          "name": "Iraqi groups",
          "note": "Iran-aligned factions"
        }
      ]
    },
    "after": {
      "label": "2026",
      "centre": "Iran, network under pressure",
      "nodes": [
        {
          "name": "Assad regime",
          "note": "gone since Dec. 2024"
        },
        {
          "name": "Hezbollah",
          "note": "degraded, still armed"
        },
        {
          "name": "Hamas",
          "note": "leadership replaced"
        },
        {
          "name": "Houthis",
          "note": "still firing"
        },
        {
          "name": "Iraqi groups",
          "note": "active, constrained"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "unresolved_labels": [
    {
      "label": "What changed: Syria",
      "value": "SEVERED",
      "detail": "Syria route severed after Assad's fall.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "What changed: Hezbollah",
      "value": "DEGRADED",
      "detail": "Hezbollah lost senior leadership and capacity, but remains armed.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "What changed: Hamas",
      "value": "LEADERSHIP REPLACED",
      "detail": "Hamas leadership was repeatedly replaced; Khalil al-Hayya became overall leader in July 2026.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "What changed: Houthis",
      "value": "UNCHANGED",
      "detail": "Houthis remain the freest-firing node.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S3"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "chains_of_contradiction": [
    {
      "chain_id": "C1",
      "title": "The same names, a different network",
      "statements": [
        "Every node present in 2023 is still named in 2026.",
        "The central sponsor is unchanged.",
        "The land bridge connecting them is gone.",
        "A network drawn from the same list of members is not the same network."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "chain_id": "C2",
      "title": "Degraded and still armed",
      "statements": [
        "Hezbollah lost senior leadership and capacity.",
        "Hezbollah remains armed.",
        "Hamas leadership was replaced repeatedly.",
        "Loss of leadership is being read as loss of capability, and the plate does not support that."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P5-S1",
        "P5-S2"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "relationship_matrix": {
    "included": false,
    "reason": "The approved format for this panel is a before-and-after network. Relationships are expressed as edges in two dated states rather than an actor-pair matrix."
  },
  "changelog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-11",
      "note": "File created from the commissioned plate."
    }
  ]
}