{
  "panel_id": "CF-P6",
  "slug": "sudan",
  "title": "Sudan, the War Nobody Explains",
  "standfirst": {
    "text": "Two armed forces, two governments claiming the same state, and a set of external backers that are reported or alleged rather than declared. The map reduces to one line running from Darfur in the west, through Kordofan as the contest zone, to the army-held east. The UN calls it the world's worst humanitarian crisis."
  },
  "data_range": {
    "end": "2026-08-11",
    "start": "2026-04-15",
    "display": "April to 11 August 2026"
  },
  "actor_cards": [
    {
      "actor_id": "SAF",
      "chip_label": "SAF",
      "chip_color": "sage",
      "WHO": "Sudanese Armed Forces.",
      "WANTS": "Keep the state under army rule; defeat RSF.",
      "HOLDS": "Eastern state institutions and the Port Sudan government.",
      "NOW": "Controls the east. Fighting remains active around Kordofan.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "RSF",
      "chip_label": "RSF",
      "chip_color": "rust",
      "WHO": "Rapid Support Forces.",
      "WANTS": "Preserve autonomous power and territorial leverage.",
      "HOLDS": "Much of Darfur plus a parallel governing project.",
      "NOW": "Strong in Darfur. Fighting continues around Kordofan and new fronts.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "PORTSUDAN",
      "chip_label": "Port Sudan govt",
      "chip_color": "blue-grey",
      "WHO": "Army-aligned government.",
      "WANTS": "International recognition and a unified state under SAF.",
      "HOLDS": "Formal ministries and diplomatic recognition.",
      "NOW": "Functions from Port Sudan while the war continues.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "RSFGOVT",
      "chip_label": "RSF parallel govt",
      "chip_color": "violet",
      "WHO": "RSF-backed rival administration.",
      "WANTS": "Political legitimacy for RSF-held territory.",
      "HOLDS": "Claims authority in RSF-controlled areas.",
      "NOW": "Rejected by the UN Security Council as a threat to Sudan's unity.",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S3"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    "Sudan",
    "SAF",
    "RSF"
  ],
  "plateWidth": 1800,
  "plateHeight": 1350,
  "source_citations": [
    {
      "id": "P6-S1",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "date": "2026-04-15",
      "title": "War explainer: territorial control and external support",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "Faction positions",
        "Territorial control",
        "Alleged and reported external backing"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P6-S2",
      "publisher": "UN OCHA",
      "date": "2026-08-10",
      "title": "Kordofan, displacement and 41 percent funding",
      "type": "official international institution",
      "supports": [
        "Kordofan as contest zone",
        "Displacement",
        "Appeal funding figures"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P6-S3",
      "publisher": "UN Security Council",
      "date": "2026-08-01",
      "title": "Reporting on the rejection of the RSF parallel government",
      "type": "official international institution",
      "supports": [
        "Rejection of the parallel government"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "subtitle": "Faction cards, rival governments, external backers, one humanitarian catastrophe.",
  "as_of_stamp": "as of August 11, 2026",
  "provenance": "Transcribed from the commissioned plate, which carries its own source row.",
  "dependency_diagram": {
    "headline": "The map in one line",
    "deck": "West to east, the war reduces to three zones and one contested middle.",
    "nodes": [
      {
        "node_id": "S1",
        "sequence": 1,
        "title": "Darfur / west",
        "status": "documented",
        "display_label": "RSF",
        "body": "RSF stronghold and parallel administration.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P6-S1"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "S2",
        "sequence": 2,
        "title": "Kordofan",
        "status": "blocked",
        "display_label": "CONTESTED",
        "body": "Main contest zone linking east and west.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P6-S2"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "S3",
        "sequence": 3,
        "title": "East",
        "status": "documented",
        "display_label": "SAF",
        "body": "SAF and Port Sudan government.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P6-S1"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "step_dependencies": [
      {
        "from": "S1",
        "to": "S2",
        "relationship": "contests",
        "label": "The RSF pushes east through Kordofan."
      },
      {
        "from": "S2",
        "to": "S3",
        "relationship": "contests",
        "label": "Kordofan is what stands between the RSF and the army-held east."
      }
    ]
  },
  "unresolved_labels": [
    {
      "label": "RSF external backing",
      "value": "ALLEGED",
      "detail": "UAE support is alleged by UN researchers, US lawmakers and Sudan's army; the UAE denies it.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "SAF external backing",
      "value": "REPORTED",
      "detail": "Reuters reports support from Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to varying degrees.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S1"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "stats": [
    {
      "label": "2026 appeal funded",
      "value": "41%",
      "emphasis": true
    },
    {
      "label": "Received",
      "value": "$1.2bn"
    },
    {
      "label": "Required",
      "value": "$2.9bn"
    }
  ],
  "stats_caption": "The UN calls Sudan the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Nearly three quarters of the population need aid. Figures as of 10 August 2026.",
  "chains_of_contradiction": [
    {
      "chain_id": "C1",
      "title": "Two governments, one state",
      "statements": [
        "The Port Sudan government holds formal ministries and diplomatic recognition.",
        "The RSF parallel administration claims authority in the territory it controls.",
        "The UN Security Council rejected the parallel government as a threat to Sudan's unity.",
        "Rejection did not remove it from the ground it administers."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S1",
        "P6-S3"
      ]
    },
    {
      "chain_id": "C2",
      "title": "Backers who are not parties",
      "statements": [
        "UAE support for the RSF is alleged by UN researchers, US lawmakers and Sudan's army.",
        "The UAE denies it.",
        "Reuters reports support for the SAF from Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to varying degrees.",
        "Every external role in this war is reported or alleged, never declared."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "chain_id": "C3",
      "title": "The worst crisis, the thinnest response",
      "statements": [
        "The UN calls Sudan the world's worst humanitarian crisis.",
        "Nearly three quarters of the population need aid.",
        "The 2026 appeal was about 41 percent funded as of 10 August.",
        "$1.2bn had been received against $2.9bn required."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P6-S2"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "relationship_matrix": {
    "included": false,
    "reason": "The approved format for this panel is faction cards with a one-line map. Relationships are expressed as territorial control rather than an actor-pair matrix."
  },
  "changelog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-11",
      "note": "File created from the commissioned plate."
    }
  ]
}