{
  "panel_id": "CF-P7",
  "slug": "libya",
  "title": "Libya, Year Twelve of the Transition",
  "standfirst": {
    "text": "The state is split between two power centres, but the money is not. Oil revenue runs through one national oil company into one central bank, and both governments depend on the same stream. The division is political; the plumbing is shared. That is what makes the central bank the pressure point."
  },
  "data_range": {
    "end": "2026-08-11",
    "start": "2026-04-10",
    "display": "April to 11 August 2026"
  },
  "actor_cards": [
    {
      "actor_id": "WEST",
      "chip_label": "West",
      "chip_color": "blue-grey",
      "WHO": "Government of National Unity in Tripoli.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Tripoli and the western institutions.",
      "NOW": "Turkey remains the most visible external security partner. The west depends on the same central bank and oil-revenue stream as the east.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P7-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "EAST",
      "chip_label": "East",
      "chip_color": "rust",
      "WHO": "House of Representatives and the eastern Government of National Stability.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "The east, operating under the shadow of Khalifa Haftar's forces.",
      "NOW": "Russia, Egypt and the UAE have been important external partners.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P7-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "NOC",
      "chip_label": "NOC",
      "chip_color": "sage",
      "WHO": "The national oil company.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Hydrocarbon revenue at the point of sale.",
      "NOW": "Sells oil and receives hydrocarbon revenue.",
      "trajectory": "holding",
      "source_ids": [
        "P7-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "actor_id": "CBL",
      "chip_label": "Central Bank",
      "chip_color": "violet",
      "WHO": "The central bank, and the single point both power centres depend on.",
      "WANTS": "VERIFY",
      "HOLDS": "Foreign exchange, liquidity allocation and the exchange rate.",
      "NOW": "Governor Naji Issa submitted his resignation on 9 August 2026. Reuters confirmed the documents.",
      "trajectory": "diminished",
      "source_ids": [
        "P7-S2"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "scorecard": {
    "title": "Where the money goes",
    "meta": "Four destinations",
    "columns": [
      "Destination",
      "Share or note",
      "Source",
      "Constraint"
    ],
    "rows": [
      {
        "actor": "Wages",
        "status": "IMF",
        "says": "Wage bill around 30% of GDP.",
        "does": "The largest single call on the revenue stream.",
        "where": "Nationwide."
      },
      {
        "actor": "Energy subsidies",
        "status": "IMF",
        "says": "Around 20% of GDP.",
        "does": "A second structural claim on the same revenue.",
        "where": "Nationwide."
      },
      {
        "actor": "FX / imports",
        "status": "Allocated",
        "says": "The central bank allocates scarce foreign currency.",
        "does": "Rationing, not spending.",
        "where": "Through the central bank."
      },
      {
        "actor": "Investment",
        "status": "Weak",
        "says": "Needed, but governance and oversight remain weak.",
        "does": "What is left after the three above.",
        "where": "Nationwide."
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "Libya",
    "Oil",
    "Institutions"
  ],
  "plateWidth": 1448,
  "plateHeight": 1086,
  "source_citations": [
    {
      "id": "P7-S1",
      "publisher": "International Monetary Fund",
      "date": "2026-04-10",
      "title": "Article IV mission: fiscal deficits, oil windfall, wage bill, energy subsidies and the central bank's role",
      "type": "official international institution",
      "supports": [
        "Revenue flow",
        "Wage bill around 30% of GDP",
        "Energy subsidies around 20% of GDP",
        "Central bank role",
        "Two power centres"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "P7-S2",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "date": "2026-08-11",
      "title": "Central Bank governor resignation and renewed political pressure over oil money",
      "type": "wire service",
      "supports": [
        "Governor Naji Issa resignation, 9 August 2026",
        "Documents confirmed",
        "Political pressure over oil money"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "subtitle": "How the oil money flows while the state is split.",
  "as_of_stamp": "as of August 11, 2026",
  "provenance": "Transcribed from the commissioned plate, which carries its own source row.",
  "flow_diagram": {
    "headline": "How the oil money flows",
    "deck": "One revenue stream, one central bank, two power centres that both need it.",
    "nodes": [
      {
        "node_id": "L1",
        "sequence": 1,
        "title": "NOC",
        "chip_label": "NATIONAL OIL COMPANY",
        "status": "documented",
        "body": "Sells oil and receives hydrocarbon revenue.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P7-S1"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "L2",
        "sequence": 2,
        "title": "Central bank",
        "chip_label": "CENTRAL BANK",
        "status": "documented",
        "body": "Receives foreign exchange, allocates liquidity, manages the exchange rate.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P7-S1"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "L3",
        "sequence": 3,
        "title": "State spending",
        "chip_label": "STATE SPENDING",
        "status": "documented",
        "body": "Salaries, subsidies, imports and operating expenses.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P7-S1"
        ]
      },
      {
        "node_id": "L4",
        "sequence": 4,
        "title": "Two power centres",
        "chip_label": "TRIPOLI AND THE EAST",
        "status": "documented",
        "body": "Tripoli and the east both need the same national money system.",
        "source_ids": [
          "P7-S1"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "edges": [
      {
        "from": "L1",
        "to": "L2",
        "label": "Hydrocarbon revenue enters the central bank as foreign exchange."
      },
      {
        "from": "L2",
        "to": "L3",
        "label": "The central bank allocates liquidity to state spending."
      },
      {
        "from": "L3",
        "to": "L4",
        "label": "Both power centres draw on the same spending system."
      }
    ]
  },
  "unresolved_labels": [
    {
      "label": "Central bank governor",
      "value": "RESIGNED",
      "detail": "Naji Issa submitted his resignation on 9 August 2026. Reuters confirmed the documents.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P7-S2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "Political settlement",
      "value": "NOT AGREED",
      "detail": "Year twelve of the transition; the state remains split between two power centres.",
      "source_ids": [
        "P7-S1"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "chains_of_contradiction": [
    {
      "chain_id": "C1",
      "title": "A divided state with undivided plumbing",
      "statements": [
        "Two governments claim authority over Libya.",
        "One national oil company sells the oil.",
        "One central bank receives the foreign exchange.",
        "Both power centres depend on the same national money system they cannot jointly govern."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P7-S1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "chain_id": "C2",
      "title": "The pressure point is an office, not a front line",
      "statements": [
        "The central bank allocates liquidity and manages the exchange rate.",
        "Wages are around 30 percent of GDP and energy subsidies around 20 percent.",
        "Whoever holds the bank sets what everyone else can spend.",
        "The governor resigned on 9 August 2026."
      ],
      "source_ids": [
        "P7-S1",
        "P7-S2"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "relationship_matrix": {
    "included": false,
    "reason": "The approved format for this panel is a money-flow diagram. Relationships are expressed as revenue routes rather than an actor-pair matrix."
  },
  "changelog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-08-11",
      "note": "File created from the commissioned plate."
    }
  ]
}