Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim president since January 2025. A 210-seat transitional parliament was seated on 12 July 2026; he appointed 70 of its members directly.

Does Damascus control the whole country?

No. Sweida remains outside its control and the province's three parliament seats sit vacant. The northeast came under Damascus administration on 30 January 2026 through a US-mediated agreement, two weeks after a government offensive took most of the region.

Are Syria and Israel at war?

Formally unresolved. Israel holds a buffer zone taken in December 2024 and struck Damascus as recently as 2025, yet by July 2026 Sharaa said the two governments are working toward a security agreement.

← State of play

built · open

Syria: Everyone Shook Hands, Nobody Agreed

As of

10 Aug 2026

Actors

Ten

Since

8 Dec 2024

Sources

UN Security Council Report · Council on Foreign Relations · UK House of Commons Library · Al Jazeera and Reuters

Plate for Syria: Everyone Shook Hands, Nobody Agreed — Dates and figures in the plate are repeated as text below.

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Eighteen months after the fall of the House of Assad, the men who took Damascus sit in its ministries, their former enemies hold seats or refuse them, and the powers that fought over Syria now negotiate over it. If you find this confusing, you are reading it correctly.

The cast

Inside

consolidating

Who: The ex-HTS leadership that took Damascus in December 2024, now the state.
Wants: One army, one treasury, sanctions gone, everyone else's weapons.
Holds: The capital, the institutions, and, since 30 January, the northeast's administration.
Now: Parliament seated 12 July 2026: 210 seats, 70 appointed by Sharaa, Sweida's three left vacant.

Inside

diminished

Who: The Kurdish-led force that ran the northeast and the ISIS prison camps for a decade.
Wants: Whatever autonomy survives the 30 January agreement.
Holds: Guns, local legitimacy, leverage over ISIS detainees; the administration went to Damascus.
Now: Signed a deal in March 2025, lost a war in January 2026, signed a smaller deal.

Inside

holding

Who: Druze factions around Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri holding Syria's southern mountain.
Wants: Local control, guarantees, and no repeat of July 2025.
Holds: Sweida province, which Damascus does not.
Now: Standoff: three parliament seats kept vacant, integration talks frozen.

Inside

diminished

Who: Assad-era officers and loyalist cells along the Alawite coast.
Wants: Survival, revenge, relevance, roughly in that order.
Holds: Grievance and geography after the March 2025 coastal killings.
Now: Embers rather than a front; the transition's accountability test.

Inside

holding

Who: The insurgency that never fully left the desert.
Wants: Chaos in the northeast handover; breakouts from the camps.
Holds: Cells in the Badia and the east.
Now: Attacks continue in the former SDF areas; everyone's enemy, no one's priority.

Outside power

flipped

Who: Neighbor, occupier of the post-December 2024 buffer zone, frequent air force over Syria.
Wants: A demilitarized south, Iran locked out, terms it writes itself.
Holds: The buffer zone past the Golan, Mount Hermon's summit, air superiority.
Now: From striking Damascus in July 2025 to security-agreement talks by July 2026.

Outside power

consolidating

Who: Damascus's chief patron and the north's resident power since 2016.
Wants: Kurdish autonomy dead, refugees home, the reconstruction contracts signed.
Holds: Border zones, leverage over the new army, the president's ear.
Now: Won the war by proxy; now managing the peace against Israel's veto.

Outside power

flipped

Who: A decade of anti-ISIS mission, now chief broker of the transition.
Wants: ISIS contained, Iran out, a success story that costs nothing.
Holds: Sanctions leverage, mostly spent; a shrinking footprint; the pen on ceasefires.
Now: Armed the SDF for ten years, then mediated their absorption on 30 January.

Outside power

diminished

Who: Assad's former air force, currently a tenant renegotiating the lease.
Wants: To keep Tartus and Hmeimim; everything else is negotiable.
Holds: Two bases, Assad himself (in Moscow), institutional memory.
Now: From kingmaker to landlord-in-talks in eighteen months.

Outside power

diminished

Who: The axis that lost its land bridge on 8 December 2024.
Wants: Back in; any corridor to Lebanon will do.
Holds: Networks rather than territory.
Now: Damascus dismantled an alleged cell in May and backs disarming Hezbollah next door.

The grid

10 actors, 45 relationships. The flip glyph ↺ marks a reversal inside the data range.

Complicated Tense Hostile At war Allied Cooperative No real relationship

Relationship states between all actors. Row and column headers are actor codes; expand the list below the table for every pair written out.
	DMS	SDF	DRZ	ALW	ISIS	ISR	TUR	USA	RUS	IRN
DMS		X dms and sdf: Complicated, flipped	T dms and drz: Tense	H dms and alw: Hostile	W dms and iss: At war	T dms and isr: Tense, flipped	A dms and tur: Allied	C dms and usa: Cooperative, flipped	X dms and rus: Complicated	H dms and irn: Hostile, flipped
SDF	X sdf and dms: Complicated, flipped		X sdf and drz: Complicated	· sdf and alw: No real relationship	W sdf and iss: At war	· sdf and isr: No real relationship	H sdf and tur: Hostile	X sdf and usa: Complicated, flipped	· sdf and rus: No real relationship	· sdf and irn: No real relationship
DRZ	T drz and dms: Tense	X drz and sdf: Complicated		· drz and alw: No real relationship	H drz and iss: Hostile	C drz and isr: Cooperative	T drz and tur: Tense	X drz and usa: Complicated	· drz and rus: No real relationship	H drz and irn: Hostile
ALW	H alw and dms: Hostile	· alw and sdf: No real relationship	· alw and drz: No real relationship		H alw and iss: Hostile	· alw and isr: No real relationship	H alw and tur: Hostile	· alw and usa: No real relationship	X alw and rus: Complicated	X alw and irn: Complicated
ISIS	W iss and dms: At war	W iss and sdf: At war	H iss and drz: Hostile	H iss and alw: Hostile		H iss and isr: Hostile	H iss and tur: Hostile	W iss and usa: At war	H iss and rus: Hostile	H iss and irn: Hostile
ISR	T isr and dms: Tense, flipped	· isr and sdf: No real relationship	C isr and drz: Cooperative	· isr and alw: No real relationship	H isr and iss: Hostile		T isr and tur: Tense	A isr and usa: Allied	X isr and rus: Complicated	W isr and irn: At war
TUR	A tur and dms: Allied	H tur and sdf: Hostile	T tur and drz: Tense	H tur and alw: Hostile	H tur and iss: Hostile	T tur and isr: Tense		X tur and usa: Complicated	X tur and rus: Complicated	T tur and irn: Tense
USA	C usa and dms: Cooperative, flipped	X usa and sdf: Complicated, flipped	X usa and drz: Complicated	· usa and alw: No real relationship	W usa and iss: At war	A usa and isr: Allied	X usa and tur: Complicated		T usa and rus: Tense	W usa and irn: At war
RUS	X rus and dms: Complicated	· rus and sdf: No real relationship	· rus and drz: No real relationship	X rus and alw: Complicated	H rus and iss: Hostile	X rus and isr: Complicated	X rus and tur: Complicated	T rus and usa: Tense		X rus and irn: Complicated
IRN	H irn and dms: Hostile, flipped	· irn and sdf: No real relationship	H irn and drz: Hostile	X irn and alw: Complicated	H irn and iss: Hostile	W irn and isr: At war	T irn and tur: Tense	W irn and usa: At war	X irn and rus: Complicated

All 45 relationships as text

dms and sdf: Complicated (flipped) At war on 13 January, one administration by the 30th. Terms still being digested.
dms and drz: Tense No control, no seats filled, no forgiveness yet for July 2025.
dms and alw: Hostile The coast remembers March 2025; Damascus calls it counterinsurgency.
dms and iss: At war The one fight everyone endorses.
dms and isr: Tense (flipped) Bombed by it in 2025, negotiating security terms with it by July 2026.
dms and tur: Allied Patron and client, increasingly employer and contractor.
dms and usa: Cooperative (flipped) From terror list to mediated maps and sanctions relief.
dms and rus: Complicated Hosting talks with the state that shelters Assad, because the bases pay.
dms and irn: Hostile (flipped) Expelled the axis, then dismantled its alleged cells in May.
sdf and drz: Complicated Two minorities comparing the fine print of their autonomy offers.
sdf and alw: No real relationship Different griefs, no common front.
sdf and iss: At war Jailer and inmate, still.
sdf and isr: No real relationship Occasional rhetorical sympathy, nothing bankable.
sdf and tur: Hostile Ankara's red line for a decade; the January war suited it fine.
sdf and usa: Complicated (flipped) Armed by Washington for ten years, then handed to Damascus by Washington.
sdf and rus: No real relationship Old channels, dead lines.
sdf and irn: No real relationship No basis left on either side.
drz and alw: No real relationship Parallel fears, separate mountains.
drz and iss: Hostile Old enemies since the 2018 massacres.
drz and isr: Cooperative Struck Damascus in their name in 2025; the embrace is useful and uncomfortable.
drz and tur: Tense Ankara reads autonomy as contagion.
drz and usa: Complicated Washington urges integration; Sweida read January's terms first.
drz and rus: No real relationship Nothing on the table.
drz and irn: Hostile No appetite for the axis in the mountain.
alw and iss: Hostile Sectarian enemies even in defeat.
alw and isr: No real relationship No channel, no use for one.
alw and tur: Hostile Ankara's client state is their problem.
alw and usa: No real relationship Off each other's lists.
alw and rus: Complicated The old patron kept the receipts, not the promises.
alw and irn: Complicated Damascus alleges the link; both deny the marriage.
iss and isr: Hostile Enemies on paper, rarely in contact.
iss and tur: Hostile A border problem Ankara outsources.
iss and usa: At war The mission that outlived three administrations.
iss and rus: Hostile Leftover enmity from another war.
iss and irn: Hostile Sectarian enemies of long standing.
isr and tur: Tense Two patrons, one Syria, zero trust.
isr and usa: Allied Aligned on Iran, split on how much Syria to bet on.
isr and rus: Complicated Deconfliction survives everything.
isr and irn: At war Open war since February; Syrian skies are one of its corridors.
tur and usa: Complicated NATO allies who armed opposite sides and both claim vindication.
tur and rus: Complicated Astana partners turned competing landlords.
tur and irn: Tense Ankara won the Syria round; Tehran has not conceded the match.
usa and rus: Tense Adversaries everywhere, unusually quiet here.
usa and irn: At war At war since 28 February; Syria is the one theater both avoid.
rus and irn: Complicated Co-patrons of a fallen client, comparing losses.

Chains of contradiction

1. Washington armed the SDF against ISIS
2. its NATO ally Turkey fought the SDF
3. Damascus attacked the SDF in January
4. Washington mediated the deal placing the SDF's region under Damascus
5. everyone announced a win.
1. A commander once carried a ten million dollar US bounty
2. he became the president who seated a parliament
3. he hosted the UN Secretary-General in July
4. and says a security agreement with Israel is being worked on.
1. Israel struck Syria's Defense Ministry in July 2025
2. it kept the buffer zone it took in 2024
3. by July 2026 the two governments were drafting security terms
4. while Israeli aircraft still transit toward Iran.

Straight answers

Who runs Syria now?: Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim president since January 2025. A 210-seat transitional parliament was seated on 12 July 2026; he appointed 70 of its members directly.
Does Damascus control the whole country?: No. Sweida remains outside its control and the province's three parliament seats sit vacant. The northeast came under Damascus administration on 30 January 2026 through a US-mediated agreement, two weeks after a government offensive took most of the region.
Are Syria and Israel at war?: Formally unresolved. Israel holds a buffer zone taken in December 2024 and struck Damascus as recently as 2025, yet by July 2026 Sharaa said the two governments are working toward a security agreement.

Changelog

10 Aug 2026 Page created. Reflects the 30 January northeast agreement, the May cabinet reshuffle, and July's parliament seating.

Sources

UN Security Council Report Monthly Forecast: Syria Aug 2026 link pending verification
Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker: Conflict in Syria Aug 2026 link pending verification
UK House of Commons Library Syria One Year After Assad Jul 2026 link pending verification
Al Jazeera and Reuters Wire reporting, 2024 to 2026 date pending verification link pending verification

Relationship verdicts are editorial classifications of sourced events, not quotations.

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