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The Axis, Before and After

One network in 2023. One altered network in 2026.

As of

11 Aug 2026

Actors

Six

Since

1 Jan 2023

Sources

Reuters · Associated Press and Reuters

Plate for The Axis, Before and After
Dates and figures in the plate are repeated as text below.

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In 2023 one network ran outward from a central sponsor: a state ally and land bridge in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran-aligned factions in Iraq. In 2026 the same names remain, but the Syria route is severed, leaderships have been replaced, and the network is under pressure rather than radiating from a centre.

The cast

Iran

diminished

Who
The central sponsor of the network in 2023.
Wants
VERIFY
Holds
Relationships with each node, formerly radiating outward.
Now
Network under pressure.

Sources P5-S1

Assad Syria

flipped

Who
State ally and land bridge in 2023.
Wants
VERIFY
Holds
Nothing. The regime is gone since December 2024.
Now
Gone since December 2024. The Syria supply route was lost after Assad's fall.

Sources P5-S1

Hezbollah

diminished

Who
The Lebanese node.
Wants
VERIFY
Holds
Arms, despite losses.
Now
Degraded, still armed. Lost senior leadership and capacity, but remains armed.

Sources P5-S1

Hamas

diminished

Who
The Gaza node.
Wants
VERIFY
Holds
VERIFY
Now
Leadership replaced. Khalil al-Hayya became overall leader in July 2026.

Sources P5-S2

Houthis

holding

Who
The Yemen node.
Wants
VERIFY
Holds
Missile and drone capability.
Now
Still firing. The freest-firing node.

Sources P5-S3

Iraqi groups

holding

Who
Iran-aligned factions in Iraq.
Wants
VERIFY
Holds
VERIFY
Now
Active, constrained.

Sources P5-S3

What is not settled

What changed: Syria
SEVERED Syria route severed after Assad's fall. P5-S1
What changed: Hezbollah
DEGRADED Hezbollah lost senior leadership and capacity, but remains armed. P5-S1
What changed: Hamas
LEADERSHIP REPLACED Hamas leadership was repeatedly replaced; Khalil al-Hayya became overall leader in July 2026. P5-S2
What changed: Houthis
UNCHANGED Houthis remain the freest-firing node. P5-S3

Chains of contradiction

  1. The same names, a different network

    1. Every node present in 2023 is still named in 2026.
    2. The central sponsor is unchanged.
    3. The land bridge connecting them is gone.
    4. A network drawn from the same list of members is not the same network.

    P5-S1

  2. Degraded and still armed

    1. Hezbollah lost senior leadership and capacity.
    2. Hezbollah remains armed.
    3. Hamas leadership was replaced repeatedly.
    4. Loss of leadership is being read as loss of capability, and the plate does not support that.

    P5-S1P5-S2

Changelog

  • 11 Aug 2026 File created from the commissioned plate.

Sources

  • P5-S1 Reuters Hezbollah says Syria supply route was lost after Assad's fall 14 Dec 2024 wire service link pending verification
    What this source establishes
    • Syria route severed
    • Assad regime gone since December 2024
    • Hezbollah degraded but armed
  • P5-S2 Reuters Hamas names Khalil al-Hayya overall leader 20 Jul 2026 wire service link pending verification
    What this source establishes
    • Hamas leadership replaced
    • Khalil al-Hayya overall leader, July 2026
  • P5-S3 Associated Press and Reuters Renewed Houthi missile and drone attacks, August 2026 1 Aug 2026 wire service link pending verification
    What this source establishes
    • Houthis still firing
    • Iraqi groups active but constrained

Data range: 2023 to 11 August 2026.

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