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Libya, Year Twelve of the Transition

How the oil money flows while the state is split.

As of

11 Aug 2026

Actors

Four

Since

10 Apr 2026

Sources

International Monetary Fund · Reuters

Plate for Libya, Year Twelve of the Transition
Dates and figures in the plate are repeated as text below.

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The state is split between two power centres, but the money is not. Oil revenue runs through one national oil company into one central bank, and both governments depend on the same stream. The division is political; the plumbing is shared. That is what makes the central bank the pressure point.

§Where the money goes

Four destinations

DestinationShare or noteSourceConstraint
Wages IMF Wage bill around 30% of GDP. The largest single call on the revenue stream. Nationwide.
Energy subsidies IMF Around 20% of GDP. A second structural claim on the same revenue. Nationwide.
FX / imports Allocated The central bank allocates scarce foreign currency. Rationing, not spending. Through the central bank.
Investment Weak Needed, but governance and oversight remain weak. What is left after the three above. Nationwide.

How the oil money flows

One revenue stream, one central bank, two power centres that both need it.

  1. 01

    NOC

    documented

    NATIONAL OIL COMPANY

    Sells oil and receives hydrocarbon revenue.

    P7-S1

  2. 02

    Central bank

    documented

    CENTRAL BANK

    Receives foreign exchange, allocates liquidity, manages the exchange rate.

    P7-S1

  3. 03

    State spending

    documented

    STATE SPENDING

    Salaries, subsidies, imports and operating expenses.

    P7-S1

  4. 04

    Two power centres

    documented

    TRIPOLI AND THE EAST

    Tripoli and the east both need the same national money system.

    P7-S1

How the steps depend on each other

  • L1 L2 Hydrocarbon revenue enters the central bank as foreign exchange.
  • L2 L3 The central bank allocates liquidity to state spending.
  • L3 L4 Both power centres draw on the same spending system.

What is not settled

Central bank governor
RESIGNED Naji Issa submitted his resignation on 9 August 2026. Reuters confirmed the documents. P7-S2
Political settlement
NOT AGREED Year twelve of the transition; the state remains split between two power centres. P7-S1

Chains of contradiction

  1. A divided state with undivided plumbing

    1. Two governments claim authority over Libya.
    2. One national oil company sells the oil.
    3. One central bank receives the foreign exchange.
    4. Both power centres depend on the same national money system they cannot jointly govern.

    P7-S1

  2. The pressure point is an office, not a front line

    1. The central bank allocates liquidity and manages the exchange rate.
    2. Wages are around 30 percent of GDP and energy subsidies around 20 percent.
    3. Whoever holds the bank sets what everyone else can spend.
    4. The governor resigned on 9 August 2026.

    P7-S1P7-S2

Changelog

  • 11 Aug 2026 File created from the commissioned plate.

Sources

  • P7-S1 International Monetary Fund Article IV mission: fiscal deficits, oil windfall, wage bill, energy subsidies and the central bank's role 10 Apr 2026 official international institution link pending verification
    What this source establishes
    • Revenue flow
    • Wage bill around 30% of GDP
    • Energy subsidies around 20% of GDP
    • Central bank role
    • Two power centres
  • P7-S2 Reuters Central Bank governor resignation and renewed political pressure over oil money 11 Aug 2026 wire service link pending verification
    What this source establishes
    • Governor Naji Issa resignation, 9 August 2026
    • Documents confirmed
    • Political pressure over oil money

Data range: April to 11 August 2026.

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